First leg between FC Porto and AS Roma. Prediction, 13.02.2025

Top match in the Europa League playoffs

Published on 11.02.2025 09:01.

FC Porto is actually a club that is represented in the Champions League, but is one of the favorites in the Europa League this year. However, the group stage was anything but ideal, as instead of finishing in the top 8, they ended up in 18th place with an even record. The visitors from Rome fared similarly, as although they are also among the favorites, they are only 15th in the table. However, they have only won two of their three games in the last two matchdays, including a 2-0 win over Frankfurt. They will of course be looking to exploit their strong defense again in Portugal.

Double chance tip 1/draw 1.39
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under 2.5 goals 1.85
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Betting tips today

18th place in the table
2 wins from the last 3 games
Only one goal conceded in these 3 games

15th place in the table
6 goals conceded in 8 games
2 wins from the last 3 games

Result tip

1:0

FC Porto can be slightly favored at home because Roma have yet to win an away game in the Europa League. Both teams are also extremely strong in defense.

Racket UEFA Europa League
#Place	Team	WGames	WWins	DDraw	LDefeats	GoalsGoals	+/-	PointsPoints
1	Lazio Rom	6	5	1	0	14:3	11	16
2	Athletic Bilbao	6	5	1	0	11:2	9	16
3	RSC Anderlecht	6	4	2	0	11:6	5	14
4	Lyon	6	4	1	1	15:7	8	13
5	E. Frankfurt	6	4	1	1	12:8	4	13
6	Galatasaray Istanbul	6	3	3	0	15:11	4	12
7	Manchester United	6	3	3	0	12:8	4	12
8	Glasgow Rangers	6	3	2	1	13:7	6	11
9	Tottenham	6	3	2	1	11:7	4	11
10	Steaua Bukarest	6	3	2	1	7:5	2	11
11	Ajax Amsterdam	6	3	1	2	14:6	8	10
12	Real Sociedad	6	3	1	2	10:6	4	10
13	FK Bodø/Glimt	6	3	1	2	10:9	1	10
14	AS Rom	6	2	3	1	8:5	3	9
15	Olympiakos Piräus	6	2	3	1	5:3	2	9
16	Ferencvarosi TC	6	3	0	3	11:10	1	9
17	Viktoria Pilsen	6	2	3	1	10:9	1	9
18	FC Porto	6	2	2	2	12:10	2	8
19	AZ Alkmaar	6	2	2	2	9:9	0	8
20	Saint-Gilloise	6	2	2	2	5:5	0	8
21	Fenerbahçe Istanbul	6	2	2	2	7:9	-2	8
22	PAOK Thessaloniki	6	2	1	3	10:8	2	7
23	FC Midtjylland	6	2	1	3	5:7	-2	7
24	IF Elfsborg	6	2	1	3	8:11	-3	7
25	SC Braga	6	2	1	3	7:10	-3	7
26	Hoffenheim	6	1	3	2	5:8	-3	6
27	Maccabi Tel Aviv	6	2	0	4	7:13	-6	6
28	Besiktas Istanbul	6	2	0	4	6:13	-7	6
29	Slavia Prague	6	1	1	4	5:7	-2	4
30	FC Twente Enschede	6	0	4	2	4:7	-3	4
31	Malmo FF	6	1	1	4	6:12	-6	4
32	Ludogorez Rasgrad	6	0	3	3	3:8	-5	3
33	FK Qarabag Agdam	6	1	0	5	4:14	-10	3
34	RFS	6	0	2	4	5:12	-7	2
35	OGC Nizza	6	0	2	4	6:14	-8	2
36	Dynamo Kyiv	6	0	0	6	1:15	-14	0
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Last 5 games FC Porto home vs. AS Rom away
FC Porto Home	AS Rom Away
Sporting Lissabon 1:1	0:1 FC Venedig
CD Santa Clara 1:1	3:1 AC Milan
Olympiakos Piräus 0:1	1:2 Udinese Calcio
Boavista Porto 4:0	1:0 AZ Alkmaar
CF Estrela Amadora 2:0	2:2 FC Bologna

Porto fell short of its own expectations

FC Porto is certainly one of the strongest teams in the Europa League, but did not make it into the top 8 of the table in the group stage. In the end, they finished 18th in the table behind teams such as Bodö/Glimt, Viktoria Pilsen and Ferencvaros. The hosts only managed to pick up 11 points from 8 games. Their record was 3 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats. While the defense did a good job with 11 goals conceded in 8 games, the team only managed 13 goals. The form curve has at least shown a slight upward trend recently, as they have won 2 of their last 3 games. These wins came against Midtjylland and Maccabi Tel Aviv. In between, however, there was also a 0:1 home defeat against Olympiakos Piraeus. However, they remained unbeaten in their remaining 3 home games, including a spectacular 3-3 draw against Manchester United. In general, they scored a goal in 7 out of 8 games. At the same time, they managed to keep a clean sheet 3 times. The last 3 games in the Europa League all ended with less than 2.5 goals.

Last 5 results FC Porto
Date	League	Home	Visitor	Result	Form
07.02.2025	Primeira League	FC Porto	Sporting Lissabon	1:1 (0:1)	U
07.02.2025 - Primeira League
03.02.2025	Primeira League	Rio Ave FC	FC Porto	2:2 (1:0)	U
03.02.2025 - Primeira League
30.01.2025	UEFA Europa League	Maccabi Tel Aviv	FC Porto	0:1 (0:0)	S
30.01.2025 - UEFA Europa League
26.01.2025	Primeira League	FC Porto	CD Santa Clara	1:1 (0:1)	U
26.01.2025 - Primeira League
23.01.2025	UEFA Europa League	FC Porto	Olympiakos Piräus	0:1 (0:0)	N
23.01.2025 - UEFA Europa League

New trainer to help

It was only at the end of January that FC Porto presented a new coach in Martin Anselmi. His aim is to bring the club closer to the top of the table again. At the moment, they are 8 points behind league leaders Sporting Lisbon. FC Porto have failed to win any of their last 5 league games. After 2 defeats in a row, the last 3 games in a row ended in a draw. However, the 1:1 against Sporting Lisbon on the last matchday was certainly a small success in a difficult phase.

FC Porto

System: 4-2-3-1.

Diogo Costa

Tiago Djaló Nehuén Pérez Zé Pedro João Mário

Alan Varela Stephen Eustaquio

Francisco Moura Pepê Samu Aghehowa

Rodrigo Mora

If you bet on less than 2.5 goals, the odds are still 1.85

To Nucleonbet

Experience should do the trick at AS Roma

AS Roma found themselves in a crisis in the fall and, like their opponents, reacted with a change of coach. Back in November, the decision was made to install Claudio Ranieri as the new coach. The start under the 73-year-old was anything but easy, but the form curve has shown a clear upward trend in recent weeks. They finished 15th in the Europa League after just one defeat from their last five games. Among others, they defeated Eintracht Frankfurt 2:0. The defense is certainly the big showpiece, because with only 6 goals conceded, they are one of the absolute best teams in the league. On the other hand, they only scored 10 goals themselves. However, 7 of these were scored in the last 4 matchdays alone, which shows a clear improvement in form. However, the Italians have always struggled away from home, failing to pick up a single win from 4 away games. Their best game was probably the 2-2 away draw against Tottenham in London.

Last 5 results AS Rom
Date	League	Home	Visitor	Result	Form
09.02.2025	Serie A	FC Venedig	AS Rom	0:1 (0:0)	S
09.02.2025 - Serie A
05.02.2025	Coppa Italia	AC Milan	AS Rom	3:1 (2:0)	N
05.02.2025 - Coppa Italia
02.02.2025	Serie A	AS Rom	SSC Neapel	1:1 (0:1)	U
02.02.2025 - Serie A
30.01.2025	UEFA Europa League	AS Rom	E. Frankfurt	2:0 (1:0)	S
30.01.2025 - UEFA Europa League
26.01.2025	Serie A	Udinese Calcio	AS Rom	1:2 (1:0)	S
26.01.2025 - Serie A

Still lacking a win in top matches

Roma have also stabilized in Serie A, even if they still only occupy 9th place. The team has remained unbeaten in its last 4 games, picking up 3 wins in the process. Their most recent victory was a 0:1 away win at FC Venezia. They have won their must-win games quite comfortably in recent weeks, but continue to lose out in top matches. In 5 games against the top 6 teams in Serie A since November 2024, they have not won a single match and have only managed a draw against Milan and one against SSC Napoli.

AS Rome

System: 4-3-3.

Mile Svilar

Devyne Rensch Gianluca Mancini Evan Ndicka Angeliño

Manu Koné Bryan Cristante Niccolò Pisilli

Matías Soulé Eldor Shomurodov Stephan El Shaarawy

2 last games in direct comparison
Date	League	Home	Visitor	Result
06.03.2019	UEFA Champions League	FC Porto	AS Rom	2:1 (1:1)
06.03.2019 - UEFA Champions League
12.02.2019	UEFA Champions League	AS Rom	FC Porto	2:1 (0:0)
12.02.2019 - UEFA Champions League

Comparison statistics last 10 events

FC Porto		:	AS Rom
3 Wins 6
3 Draw 2
4 Defeats 2
13 Goals scored 19
11 Goals received 9
12 Shots on target 8

FC Porto

58%

Ball possession

86%

Accuracy of passes

51%

Duels
won

AS Rom

51%

Duels
won

88%

Accuracy of passes

54%

Ball possession

FC Porto

19
Corners

6
Shots on target

15
Goal kicks
next to the goal

8
Goal kicks
blocked

20
Goal kicks
in the penalty area

9
Goal kicks
outside the penalty area

4
Offside

6
yellow cards

0
red cards

AS Rom

14
Corners

8
Shots on target

21
Goal kicks
next to the goal

11
Goal kicks
blocked

28
Goal kicks
in the penalty area

12
Goal kicks
outside the penalty area

7
Offside

6
yellow cards

1
red cards

Comparison of goal statistics of the last 10 matches

FC Porto

Goals scored

Goals received

ø 1,30

per game

Goal difference

7 / 10

Games with goals

AS Rom

Goals scored

Goals received

ø 1,90

per game

+10

Goal difference

9 / 10

Games with goals

Odds probabilities

1.75

13.50

under 2.5 goals 76.08%

over 2.5 goals 23.92%

1.29

3.75

under 3.5 goals 74.09%

over 3.5 goals 25.91%

1.09

8.00

under 4.5 goals 87.09%

over 4.5 goals 12.91%

1.83

1.95

both teams to score - yes 51.52%

both teams to score - no 48.48%

There is no clear favorite - Our forecast

Porto are not as strong as in recent years, but can still beat anyone at home. Roma have clearly improved in recent weeks, but have not won a single away match in the Europa League. We would therefore tend to favor a double chance bet 1/X. Both teams were very strong defensively in the group stage. Another betting tip would therefore be "under 2.5 goals".

First leg between FC Porto and AS Roma. Prediction, 13.02.2025

Top match in the Europa League playoffs

FC Porto

AS Rom

Porto fell short of its own expectations

New trainer to help

FC Porto

Experience should do the trick at AS Roma

Still lacking a win in top matches

AS Rome

Comparison statistics last 10 events

Comparison of goal statistics of the last 10 matches

There is no clear favorite - Our forecast

Odd comparison FC Porto - AS Rom