Are England really favorites in this quarter-final? AI prediction & tip, 06.07.2024
Switzerland wants to knock out the next top favorite
The second quarter-final of this European Championship will be contested by top favorites England and Switzerland. The Three Lions have struggled to bring their quality to the pitch throughout the entire European Championships. After a disappointing group stage with only 2 goals scored, they were also unconvincing in the round of 16. They only managed to score the equalizer against Slovakia in stoppage time. In the end, they prevailed in extra time. Switzerland will now be a different caliber once again, as they partially outplayed the reigning European champions Italy in the round of 16. We are therefore not quite as sure as the bookmakers that they are the favorites.
England
- Round of 16 won 2:1 against Slovakia
- Only 4 goals in 4 European Championship matches
- More quality in the squad
Switzerland
- 2:0 victory in the round of 16 against Italy
- Strongest team in the round of 16
- Not yet lost a game at this European Championship
The AI prediction for this quarter-final
Despite their rather weak performances so far, the AI favors the English. Of course, this is primarily due to the Three Lions' strong squad. Switzerland has also not made it to the semi-finals of a major tournament for decades. The artificial intelligence is therefore predicting a victory for England. However, the AI also expects a close game, which is why it does not rule out a draw after 90 minutes. The AI tip, however, is a simple tip 1.
| England Home | Switzerland Away |
|---|---|
| Slovakia 1:1 | 1:1 Scotland |
| Slovenia 0:0 | 1:3 Hungary |
| Iceland 0:1 | 0:1 Ireland |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina 3:0 | 0:0 Denmark |
| Belgium 2:2 | 1:0 Romania |
After the group stage, England also disappoint in the round of 16
England did not make a good impression in the group stage and many were sure that as soon as they faced their first strong opponent, they would be out of the Euros. Although they didn't face a top team in Slovakia in the round of 16, they were still on the brink of elimination. Slovakia were 1:0 ahead until the 91st minute and only conceded the equalizer in stoppage time from Harry Kaner. Jude Bellingham then followed up in stoppage time to secure a 2-1 victory for England. It was only goals number 3 and 4 at this tournament. .
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England
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Slovakia
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1:1 (0:1) | U | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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30.06.2024 - Euro 2024
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England
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Slovenia
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0:0 (0:0) | U | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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25.06.2024 - Euro 2024
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Denmark
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England
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1:1 (1:1) | U | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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20.06.2024 - Euro 2024
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Serbia
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England
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0:1 (0:1) | S | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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16.06.2024 - Euro 2024
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| International |
England
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Iceland
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0:1 (0:1) | N | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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07.06.2024 - International
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England's reserves impress
Coach Gareth Southgate made only one change from the group stage matches and that was the substitution of Kobbie Mainoo. The young star replaced Trent Alexander Arnold in defensive midfield. However, the offense was once again a shadow of its former self. Only with the substitutions of Cole Palmer, Eberechi Eze and Ivan Toney did the team become a little more dangerous in attack. But then the absolute superstars Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham provided the important goals.
England
System: 4-3-3.
The Three Lions need a new central defender
England will have to do without their central defender Marc Guehi in the quarter-finals. The Crystal Palace player has started in central defense in every game so far, but will now have to sit out due to a yellow card suspension. He would be back in the squad for a possible semi-final. Who will line up alongside John Stones is still completely open. The options here are: Joe Gomez, Lewis Dunk and Ezri Konsa. It is also possible that Kyle Walker will line up in central defense and Trent Alexander Arnold will take up the right-back position.
Switzerland wants to eliminate the next top favorite
Our Swiss are playing a very strong European Championship so far and are still unbeaten after 4 games. In the group stage, they only narrowly missed out on winning the group after conceding an equalizer against Germany. In the end, they had 5 points and a goal difference of 5:3 goals. In the round of 16, the reigning European champions Italy awaited. However, Switzerland were not impressed and secured an unchallenged 2:0 victory. The Italians were overrun at times and, together with Spain, probably put in the best performance in the round of 16. Based on their performance, Switzerland are certainly not underdogs in the match against England.
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Switzerland
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Italy
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2:0 (1:0) | S | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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29.06.2024 - Euro 2024
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Switzerland
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Germany
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1:1 (1:0) | U | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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23.06.2024 - Euro 2024
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Scotland
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Switzerland
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1:1 (1:1) | U | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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19.06.2024 - Euro 2024
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Hungary
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Switzerland
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1:3 (0:2) | S | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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15.06.2024 - Euro 2024
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Switzerland
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Austria
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1:1 (1:1) | U | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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08.06.2024 - International
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Switzerland's back three has worked very well so far
Murat Yakin's team is playing with a back three at this European Championship and is relying on plenty of experience. Fabian Schär, Manuel Akanji and Ricardo Rodriguez have been the starters so far and will continue to be so in the quarter-final against England. In the attack, Breel Embolo and Ruben Vargas usually cause trouble. Dan Ndoye will also be back in the quarter-finals. However, Granit Xhaka is once again the man to watch. The captain not only played a strong season at Leverkusen, but is now also one of the best players at this European Championship.
Switzerland
System: 4-2-3-1.
Coach Murat Yakin can draw on his full resources
Unlike their opponents, Switzerland have all their players available again for the quarter-finals. In the round of 16, they had to do without attacking player Dan Ndoye, who had already driven the Germans to despair. In addition, no other player picked up a yellow card in the round of 16 against Italy. The starting line-up will therefore be almost identical, only Ndoye could return.
The head-to-head duels clearly favor England
If you take a closer look at the head-to-head duels, it is clear that England has the edge here. Switzerland have not won a game against the Three Lions since 1981. The English have gone 13 games unbeaten in a row, most recently winning five in a row. The most recent was in March 2022, when they won 2-1 in a friendly match. The last competitive match between the two was in 2019 when they met in the match for third place in the UEFA Nations League. England also won there, but only in a penalty shoot-out with a score of 5:6. In the last 5 games against England, Switzerland only managed one goal after 90 minutes.
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England
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Switzerland
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2:1 (1:1) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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26.03.2022 - International
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Switzerland
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England
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09.06.2019 - UEFA Nations League
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England
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11.09.2018 - International
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Where will this European Championship quarter-final be broadcast?
The third quarter-final of this European Championship will take place on Saturday, July 6th. Kick-off is at 18:00 in the Düsseldorf Arena. In Austria, the match will be broadcast live on ORF1. You can also watch the live stream on Magenta TV or ORF TVThek on the internet. The Swiss will show the game on SRF 2. In Germany, ZDF will broadcast the game live on TV, and Magenta TV has also secured the rights.
A win bet is extremely attractive due to the odds
England are the favorites, but due to their poor performance, they also have odds of over 2.00 for a win. As the underdogs, Switzerland have strong odds of 3.70. A single bet on the Swiss could therefore pay off. The bookies also assume that there will be few goals. For an over/under bet on under 2.5 goals, the odds are just 1.57. For more than 2.5 goals, you even get odds of just under 2.40. Incidentally, the odds for Switzerland to progress are just 2.50.
Comparison statistics last 10 events
| England | : | Switzerland | ||
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3 Wins 4 |
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5 Draw 5 |
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2 Defeats 1 |
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11 Goals scored 14 |
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7 Goals received 6 |
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12 Shots on target 8 |
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ChatGPT assigns England the role of favorite
ChatGPT's prediction is ambiguous and predicts a close duel. England are considered by many to be the favorites, as they have shown very strong performances in recent tournaments and probably have the best squad. However, they have not been very convincing in previous matches. Switzerland, on the other hand, have proven in recent years that they are capable of beating strong opponents, especially in tournaments. Their defense is extremely solid and they have a good mix of experience and youth. However, England are the favorites and a win seems more likely. The decision will depend on their form on the day and their tactical approach.
Forebet win probability
The Forebet site uses a supercomputer to give percentage probabilities for winning bets and result bets. Explain and analyze them here
The AI is clearly leaning towards England
Despite the poor performances, the AI of various providers is betting on an England victory here. Although the artificial intelligence predicts a very close game, England will prevail in the end. Switzerland will probably have the ball more and play more aggressively than England. In the end, it will come down to the shape of the day, as many AI providers are also predicting. Nevertheless, the AI tip here is: England win. However, according to various AI predictions, extra time is not out of the question.
- AI tip: England win
Comparison of goal statistics of the last 10 matches
What is our prediction for this game
The AI sees England as having the advantage here, but we think the Swiss are stronger. Of course, this is primarily due to the strong performance of the Swiss. A draw after 90 minutes seems very realistic to us. We also believe that the trend will continue and that not many goals will be scored again. For less than 2.5 goals after 90 minutes you still get odds of 1.51.
