Argentina go into the Copa America final against Colombia as favorites. AI forecast, 15.07.24
Can Lionel Messi and co. defend their title?
Argentina are currently in almost frightening top form. After winning the Copa America title in 2021, they also won the world title in 2023 and now they have the chance to defend their Copa America title against Colombia in the final. Lionel Messi and Co. have found their perfect coach in Lionel Scalon and the series is breathtaking. After beating Canada in the semi-final, they are also the big favorites in the final. Colombia, who finished 3rd in 2021, await them there. In a heated semi-final against Uruguay, they won 1:0. Before that, they defeated Panama with an impressive 5:0. The pressure is definitely on the Albiceleste.
Argentina
- Reigning world champion
- Reigning Copa America winner
- 24 wins in the last 25 games
Colombia
- Uruguay defeated in the semi-final
- No defeat in the last 25 games
- Less pressure than the opponent
The AI forecast for the 2024 Copa America final
In contrast to the European Championship final, the AI has a clear favorite here with Argentina. Nevertheless, a close result is expected, mainly due to the incredible run of Colombia, who have not lost in 25 games. Lionel Messi could end this streak, with a goal in the semi-final against Canada he has certainly warmed up. The AI tip for this game is still a win for Argentina after 90 minutes.
| Argentina Home | Colombia Away |
|---|---|
| Canada 2:0 | 0:1 Uruguay |
| Ecuador 1:1 | 1:1 Brazil |
| Peru 2:0 | 1:5 USA |
| Canada 2:0 | 3:2 Romania |
| Guatemala 4:1 | 0:1 Spain |
Argentina is the measure of all things at the moment
The Albiceleste may currently be in their best shape for decades. Under coach Lionel Scaloni, they won the World Cup in 2023 and also secured the Copa America title in 2021. Now they are in the final again and have the chance to win their third title in the last three years. They are definitely the favorites in the final, also because they have impressed in the tournament so far. A victory in the final would be their 10th win in a row. Since November 2022, they have generally only conceded one defeat and that was in November 2023 when they were beaten 2-0 by Uruguay in the World Cup qualifiers.
They got through the group stage relatively easily with 3 wins from 3 games. The goal difference was 5:0. However, they lost their clean sheet in the quarter-finals against Ecuador. After a 1:1 draw, they were only able to prevail in the penalty shoot-out. They then put in a stronger performance in the semi-final against Canada, against whom they won 2-0. In 4 of 5 games they remained without conceding a goal. A total of 8 goals were scored in 5 games. Half of all goals were scored by Lautaro Martinez, who will probably also take the top scorer's crown.
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| Copa America |
Argentina
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Canada
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2:0 (1:0) | S | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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10.07.2024 - Copa America
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| Copa America |
Argentina
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Ecuador
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1:1 (1:0) | U | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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05.07.2024 - Copa America
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| Copa America |
Argentina
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Peru
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2:0 (0:0) | S | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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30.06.2024 - Copa America
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| Copa America |
Chile
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Argentina
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0:1 (0:0) | S | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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26.06.2024 - Copa America
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| Copa America |
Argentina
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Canada
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2:0 (0:0) | S | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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21.06.2024 - Copa America
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Argentina has hardly any weaknesses in its team
The Argentinians have one of the best squads in the world, as evidenced by the squad's market value of over €800 million. The centerpiece is now almost the midfield. In recent years, Alexis MacAllister, Enzo Fernandez and Rodrigo de Paul have developed into truly world-class players. Alongside Lionel Messi, Lautaro Martinez is now the main man up front. With 4 goals, he is also currently the most prolific player in the team. Julian Alvarez is another world-class player on the bench as a wild card.
The two Premier League players Christian Romero and Lisandro Martinez, who are also among the best there are, form the central defense. In Emiliano Martinez, they also have a real penalty-killer between the posts.The position at full-back can probably be seen as the weakest point. Although Nahuel Molina and Nicolas Tagliafico are also well-known players here, they are certainly not world class at the moment. However, there are good alternatives in Marcos Acuna and Gonzalo Montiel.
Argentina
System: 4-2-3-1.
Does Colombia have what it takes to win the Copa America title?
The Colombian national team was not necessarily one of the favorites for the title, but if you look at their record and performances in recent months, it is not surprising that they are in the final. Since Nestor Lorenzo has been at the helm, Colombia have not been beaten and have won 19 of their last 25 games. Including victories against Germany, Spain and Brazil. The goal difference in these last 25 games is 50:16 goals. This makes them look absolutely like a top nation.
They are also in strong form at this Copa America, having beaten Brazil and others in the group stage. With 2 wins and a draw, they collected 7 points, 2 points more than the Brazilians. They therefore had the slightly easier draw in the quarter-finals and faced Panama. They won this knockout game with a clear 5:0 victory. In the semi-finals, they narrowly beat Uruguay 1:0 in a hard-fought match. The important goal was scored by Jefferson Lerma. Four players in the Colombian squad have already scored two goals at this tournament. Among others also the big star of Liverpool FC Luis Diaz.
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| Copa America |
Uruguay
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Colombia
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0:1 (0:1) | S | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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11.07.2024 - Copa America
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| Copa America |
Colombia
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Panama
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5:0 (3:0) | S | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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07.07.2024 - Copa America
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| Copa America |
Brazil
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Colombia
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1:1 (1:1) | U | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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03.07.2024 - Copa America
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| Copa America |
Colombia
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Costa Rica
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3:0 (1:0) | S | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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29.06.2024 - Copa America
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| Copa America |
Colombia
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Paraguay
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2:1 (2:0) | S | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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25.06.2024 - Copa America
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Colombia do not have the same quality in their squad as their opponents
Colombia are anything but a bad team, but with a squad market value of just under €280 million, they lack some quality compared to their opponents. Their best and most dangerous player is certainly Luis Diaz from Liverpool FC. He alone has a market value of € 75 million and has already scored 2 goals at this Copa America. In attack, however, they have other good Premier League players in Jhon Duran and Luis Sinisterra. In central defense, Davinson Sanchez is an old acquaintance. Yerry Mina and Jhon Lucumi have also already shown that they are among the strong defenders in Europe.
Captain James Rodriguez is also making an outstanding impression again. The now 32-year-old, who is currently under contract with Sao Paulo FC, has already provided an incredible 6 assists in 5 games and has also scored a goal. It is quite possible that he will be named the best player of the tournament.
Colombia
System: 4-3-3.
Argentina has a strong record against Colombia
The last time they met was almost three years ago in February 2022, when Argentina narrowly won 1:0 in the World Cup qualifiers. A few months earlier, they met in the semi-finals of the Copa America, where Argentina also won, but only on penalties. Colombia's last win came at the Copa America in 2019, when they celebrated a 0:2 victory in the group stage. However, this was also Colombia's only win since 2007. The record therefore speaks quite clearly in favor of the Argentinians.
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Argentina
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Colombia
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1:0 (1:0) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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02.02.2022 - World Cup 2022
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Argentina
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Colombia
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1:1 (1:0) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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07.07.2021 - Copa America
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Colombia
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Argentina
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2:2 (0:2) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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09.06.2021 - World Cup 2022
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Argentina
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Colombia
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0:2 (0:0) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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16.06.2019 - Copa America
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Colombia
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Argentina
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0:0 (0:0) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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12.09.2018 - International
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Comparison statistics last 10 events
| Argentina | : | Colombia | ||
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9 Wins 8 |
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1 Draw 1 |
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0 Defeats 1 |
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21 Goals scored 26 |
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3 Goals received 8 |
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12 Shots on target 8 |
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won
won
Corners
Shots on target
Goal kicks
next to the goal
Goal kicks
blocked
Goal kicks
in the penalty area
Goal kicks
outside the penalty area
offside
yellow cards
red cards
Corners
Shots on target
Goal kicks
next to the goal
Goal kicks
blocked
Goal kicks
in the penalty area
Goal kicks
outside the penalty area
offside
yellow cards
red cards
What result does ChatGPT expect?
The artificial intelligence sees Argentina as slight favorites because they have shown impressive performances during the tournament. They beat Canada 2-0 in the semi-finals and put in a very good offensive performance overall. Colombia will rely more on their defense to frustrate Argentina and minimize their chances. ChatGPT nevertheless believes that the Albiceleste will win 2:1 or 1:0. In any case, they are the favorites.
Forebet would be surprised if Colombia won
For Forebet's supercomputer, a victory for Colombia is rather unlikely. The probability of victory is just 25%. A win for Argentina is far more likely, at 36%. The most likely outcome here is a draw, which has a probability of 39%. The result tip also looks like this. A 1:1 is considered most realistic here.
Comparison of goal statistics of the last 10 matches
What forecast do our experts have
Argentina is also the favorite to win for our experts. However, due to Colombia's strong run, we would advise against betting on a win. Argentina's offense has shown itself to be very accurate so far, but now faces an enormously stable defense. We therefore do not expect a goal spectacle and would bet on under 2.5 goals. For a risk betting slip, a draw after 90 minutes could actually pay off.
